He is wrong by any normal definition.

Bad history of economics.

New Keynesianism, the mainstream of modern macro, is Lucas's Islands model-- the Lucas Supply Curve-- with some temporary sticky prices added.

+

-- Garett Jones (@GarettJones) Sun May 21 13:34:57 +0000 2023

Garett Jones tweeted this while quoting the below tweet.

OK, something that isn't about the d*** c*******. Obituaries have acknowledged his brilliance and huge influence, all of which is true. But I think it's important to realize that his project to reform macroeconomics was a failure 1/ https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/17/business/economy/robert-e-lucas-jr-dead.html

-- Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) Sun May 21 11:35:17 +0000 2023

tylercowen Retweeted

There's a widespread, but incorrect, belief that wind and solar costs are falling and will inevitably keep doing so. The widely underreported reality is that prices are up 30-60% from pre-pandemic lows. The first step to reversing this trend is to acknowledge it. 1/6

-- John Arnold (@JohnArnoldFndtn) Sun May 21 17:29:49 +0000 2023

tylercowen Retweeted

Magnus Carlsen: "I haven't really played or studied chess much recently, and it was showing! At least I steadied the ship a little bit in the last couple of rounds, but overall just really rusty"

#GrandChessTour

-- chess24.com (@chess24com) Sun May 21 16:26:32 +0000 2023

tylercowen Retweeted

A Japanese professor proposed a new idea to boost our search for extraterrestrial life:

https://www.universal-sci.com/article/studying-microscopic-space-dust-that-landed-on-earth

-- World and Science (@WorldAndScience) Sun May 21 17:47:09 +0000 2023

tylercowen Retweeted

In June 2020, unbelievably three years ago, I founded @CatherineProj in order to spread serious learning abroad as quickly and simply as possible. I thought it might be good to post an update.

-- Zena Hitz (@zenahitz) Sat May 13 23:59:55 +0000 2023

In an amazing turn of events, educators appear to be opposed to the thing that might make education good.

-- Matthew Povey (@mattpovey) Sat May 20 00:37:23 +0000 2023

tylercowen Retweeted

Economists seem to consistently be the most dismissive of AI existential risk concerns, out of all groups of people who think seriously about the future. Why is this and what can we learn from it?

-- Adam D'Angelo (@adamdangelo) Sat May 20 16:54:44 +0000 2023

Adam D'Angelo tweeted this while quoting the below tweet.

Replying to @DAcemogluMIT

Finally and relatedly, we should really stop worrying about super intelligent, evil AI. I am impressed by, e.g., GPT-4, but it is NOT intelligent and will not take over the world.

It can make huge damage to inequality, wages and democracy without being super intelligent.

-- Daron Acemoglu (@DAcemogluMIT) Fri May 19 16:16:51 +0000 2023

tylercowen Retweeted

What economists know that X-riskers do not:

-- Garett Jones (@GarettJones) Sat May 20 20:28:59 +0000 2023

Garett Jones tweeted this while quoting the below tweet.

Replying to @adamdangelo

@adamdangelo @michael_nielsen It's their first time looking at a miracle.

We look at miracles all the time.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/2951551

-- Garett Jones (@GarettJones) Sat May 20 20:23:26 +0000 2023

tylercowen Retweeted

Replying to @adamdangelo

@adamdangelo One theory: economists demand models for empirical predictions, and arguments for AI x-risk aren't rigorous or model-based in the way the norms of profession typically require.

-- Nabeel S. Qureshi (@nabeelqu) Sat May 20 17:31:37 +0000 2023

tylercowen Retweeted

My 10-year old kid is liar-paradoxing ChatGPT

-- Boaz Barak (@boazbaraktcs) Sun May 21 00:15:54 +0000 2023

Excited today that @TenThinkTank is publishing my blueprint for a new Great Exhibition of industry, to showcase and encourage more innovation!

But it needs an awe-inspiring building to draw the crowds. Which of these AI-generated designs do you prefer?

Vote below!

-- Dr Anton Howes (@antonhowes) Thu May 18 07:15:03 +0000 2023

tylercowen Retweeted

Cool reporting on some research our science team supported: https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2023/05/15/alzheimers-disease-treatments/

-- Alexander Berger (@albrgr) Mon May 15 16:40:55 +0000 2023

tylercowen Retweeted

#MasonResearch Tyler Cowen of @MasonEconomics & @GMU_CSPC is the author of this piece: The Economist Who Defied Expectations https://wapo.st/433lMqD

-- Mason Research (@MasonResearch) Wed May 17 21:13:09 +0000 2023

tylercowen Retweeted

If you are worried about monopoly power, says @tylercowen, then deregulation should be near the top of your political agenda https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-05-18/attack-monopoly-power-with-deregulation-not-antitrust-law?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twitter via @opinion

-- Robert Burgess (former blue checker) (@BobOnMarkets) Thu May 18 12:33:05 +0000 2023

tylercowen Retweeted

A common error that media, academia and big companies often make is to valorize intelligence rather than effectiveness.

High intelligence without effectiveness is the worst kind of waste.

-- Katherine Boyle (@KTmBoyle) Thu May 18 13:14:31 +0000 2023

Deregulation is a partial solution to many monopoly problems: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-05-18/attack-monopoly-power-with-deregulation-not-antitrust-law?sref=htOHjx5Y#xj4y7vzkg

-- tylercowen (@tylercowen) Thu May 18 13:56:32 +0000 2023

tylercowen Retweeted

Replying to @pratyushbuddiga

@pratyushbuddiga @rabois @patrickc @sama Yes, @tylercowen and I had a similar conversation over lunch this week. Simply put, todays opportunities favor experience and are technically harder. The low hanging fruit of vertical SaaS is mostly picked.

-- Jordan Bramble (@jordanbramble) Thu May 18 17:12:25 +0000 2023

tylercowen Retweeted

My son @MikeGioia1 was featured on NPR Morning Edition today on a piece about AI and the WGA strike. Mike is creating AI tools for artists through his company Pickaxe. https://one.npr.org/?sharedMediaId=1176806824:1176806825

-- Dana Gioia (@DanaGioiaPoet) Thu May 18 17:52:21 +0000 2023

tylercowen Retweeted

this entire thread on Ghanaian movie posters/ art is amazing but my fave by far is this one -- for The Godfather!! 😹

-- Sonal Chokshi (@smc90) Thu May 18 18:47:05 +0000 2023

Sonal Chokshi tweeted this while quoting the below tweet.

Replying to @ATRightMovies

5/20 - The Godfather

-- All The Right Movies (@ATRightMovies) Wed May 17 14:18:34 +0000 2023

New episode! Simon Johnson (@baselinescene) joins @tylercowen to discuss his top proposal for reforming the IMF, how quickly the Industrial Revolution led to widespread prosperity, whether AI will boost wages, and more: https://conversationswithtyler.com/episodes/simon-johnson/

-- Convos With Tyler (@cowenconvos) Wed May 17 12:18:59 +0000 2023

My Conversation with Simon Johnson, https://conversationswithtyler.com/episodes/simon-johnson/, @baselinescene, #economics, #tech, #banking, #Cowenconvos

-- tylercowen (@tylercowen) Wed May 17 12:26:28 +0000 2023

tylercowen Retweeted

Could the NIH – annual budget $47 billion – do better at spurring research that improves human well-being? If so, how?  My @BrookingsEcon colleagues asked several scholars for (short) proposals towards “Building a better NIH.”  https://www.brookings.edu/product/building-a-better-nih/ #BetterNIH

-- David Wessel (@davidmwessel) Wed May 17 11:46:23 +0000 2023

From “No one participates more in politics than atheists” by @ryanburge

-- Infovores (@ageofinfovores) Tue May 16 12:24:35 +0000 2023

My tribute to Robert E. Lucas, one of the true greats: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-05-16/robert-lucas-economist-who-defied-expectations-dies-at-85?sref=htOHjx5Y

-- tylercowen (@tylercowen) Tue May 16 14:16:24 +0000 2023

tylercowen Retweeted

Fellow economist @tylercowen explains how Robert Lucas, who died this week, changed the way his profession is practiced and judged https://trib.al/vh8NurO

-- Bloomberg Opinion (@opinion) Tue May 16 14:45:16 +0000 2023

What should I ask Stephen Jennings? https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/05/what-should-i-ask-stephen-jennings.html, #Kenya, #Rendeavour, #NewZealand, #Cowenconvos, please leave your suggestions at the link.

-- tylercowen (@tylercowen) Tue May 16 22:58:26 +0000 2023

In which I chat with Russ Roberts, @EconTalker, and present a more balanced view of AI risk: https://www.econtalk.org/tyler-cowen-on-the-risks-and-impact-of-artificial-intelligence/

-- tylercowen (@tylercowen) Mon May 15 12:43:51 +0000 2023

tylercowen Retweeted

Great episode. "Doomers" need to show their math, and more generally, people should have a realistic view of what "intelligence" gets you in terms of social/political power.

-- Gerard DiPippo (@gdp1985) Mon May 15 13:05:00 +0000 2023

Gerard DiPippo tweeted this while quoting the below tweet.

In which I chat with Russ Roberts, @EconTalker, and present a more balanced view of AI risk: https://www.econtalk.org/tyler-cowen-on-the-risks-and-impact-of-artificial-intelligence/

-- tylercowen (@tylercowen) Mon May 15 12:43:51 +0000 2023

tylercowen Retweeted

Something major is happening when the time scale is days. I was there for the last one of these (the web) and even then the time scale was closer to weeks than days.

-- Paul Graham (@paulg) Mon May 15 12:35:38 +0000 2023

Paul Graham tweeted this while quoting the below tweet.

The last few days in AI development is insane.

Google X Adobe
ChatGPT new UI
Midjourney 3d model
ChatGPT Plugins release
Coca-Cola new Ad with AI
Google new Universal Translator AI
Claude gets better than ChatGPT-4

Everything you need to know & how it'll change many things:🧵

-- Barsee 🐶 (@heyBarsee) Mon May 15 07:45:10 +0000 2023

tylercowen Retweeted

Replying to @paulg

It would be fascinating if the most important thing about Brexit, historically, turned out to be its interaction with the AI revolution. But history often surprises you like that.

-- Paul Graham (@paulg) Mon May 15 13:24:16 +0000 2023

tylercowen Retweeted

Leopold Aschenbrenner graduated valedictorian from Columbia at 19. Able to do anything in the world, he decided to devote himself to AI alignment. Find out why.

I talk to him about it for the @CSPICenterOrg podcast. Follow at @leopoldasch https://www.cspicenter.com/p/ai-alignment-as-a-solvable-problem

-- Richard Hanania (@RichardHanania) Mon May 15 13:49:33 +0000 2023

tylercowen Retweeted

Robert Lucas has passed away. A deep thinker. Huge inspiration to me as a teacher for his dogged desire to figure things out. Here is my 2007 interview with him from the early days of EconTalk. https://www.econtalk.org/lucas-on-growth-poverty-and-business-cycles/

-- Russ Roberts (@EconTalker) Mon May 15 20:46:15 +0000 2023

Yes, says @tylercowen, AI will be used to create propaganda — but it will also offer users new ways to filter it out (via @opinion) https://trib.al/6ytWQok

-- Bloomberg Economics (@economics) Sat May 13 15:12:02 +0000 2023

Is there a scenario in which AI boosts social trust? https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-05-13/could-ai-help-us-humans-trust-each-other-more?utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-economics&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=economics&sref=htOHjx5Y, #maybe

-- tylercowen (@tylercowen) Sat May 13 15:57:36 +0000 2023

tylercowen Retweeted

Alireza Firouzja is now co-leader with just 2 rounds to go, while Ding Liren and Nepomniachtchi share last place with Deac! https://chess24.com/en/watch/live-tournaments/grand-chess-tour-superbet-classic-2023/7/1/1
#c24live #GrandChessTour

-- chess24.com (@chess24com) Sat May 13 17:18:32 +0000 2023

To those who worry about waning power of the greenback: In the countries at the epicentre of the Belt and Road, USD always trades at a spread of 0.5% while RMB is 12-15%. And Russian Rouble surprisingly stable + often less than 3%.

-- Hosuk Lee-Makiyama (@leemakiyama) Fri May 12 05:27:51 +0000 2023

Discovered I played in the same event (coincidentally called "Friends of Jose Capablanca") in New York, in April of 1999, with a player by the name of Samuel Bankman-Fried. Can't confirm if this is the same guy but curious about it.

-- Fabiano Caruana (@FabianoCaruana) Thu May 11 07:20:51 +0000 2023

tylercowen Retweeted

Kevin Bryan on A User's Guide to GPT and LLMs for Economics Research https://youtu.be/LJGQjozWr0E via @YouTube

-- Joshua Gans (@joshgans) Thu May 11 19:44:30 +0000 2023

tylercowen Retweeted

Replying to @labenz

The book is "The AI Revolution in Medicine: GPT-4 and Beyond"

I find myself recommending the book to all sorts of people right now, but as @tylercowen put it, "especially for the skeptics"

https://www.amazon.com/AI-Revolution-Medicine-GPT-4-Beyond/dp/0138200130/ref=sr_1_1

-- Nathan Labenz (@labenz) Thu May 11 21:44:25 +0000 2023

As the population of many wealthy countries becomes smaller and smaller, taxes on the young will have to get higher and higher. @tylercowen has a solution https://trib.al/KxlRBl5

-- Bloomberg Opinion (@opinion) Wed May 10 13:26:46 +0000 2023

How will immigration debates change and evolve, as fertility rates continue to fall?: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-05-10/immigration-debate-falling-fertility-rates-will-turn-it-upside-down?cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-view&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=view&sref=htOHjx5Y

-- tylercowen (@tylercowen) Wed May 10 13:46:33 +0000 2023

tylercowen Retweeted

China surely has a team dedicated to infiltrating OpenAI at this point, right?

China hawks 🤝 AI safety worriers: lock down infosec at AI labs.

AGI would be the most powerful weapon man has ever created; this needs "nuclear secrets" rather than "random startup"-level security

-- Leopold Aschenbrenner (@leopoldasch) Wed May 10 16:50:38 +0000 2023

tylercowen Retweeted

BREAKING:

Poland has decided to return to the old Polish name for Kaliningrad, which from now on will be marked as "Krolewiec" on Polish maps.

The decision was taken by the Government Commission for Geographic Names Abroad, which called Kaliningrad "an artificial name"

(1/?)

-- Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) Wed May 10 16:39:04 +0000 2023

tylercowen Retweeted

#BloombergGPT Chronicles are now live!

@TechAtBloomberg released a detailed narrative of our experience training a 50B parameter #LLM. We hope this helps other groups building large #AI / #NLProc models. Let’s look at some of the highlights. 🧵
https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.17564

-- Mark Dredze (@mdredze) Wed May 10 16:30:11 +0000 2023

Mark Dredze tweeted this while quoting the below tweet.

A few weeks ago, we published our #BloombergGPT paper on arXiv. It's now been updated to include the training logs (Chronicles) detailing our team's experience in training this 50B parameter #LargeLanguageModel. We hope it benefits others.
https://bloom.bg/3LGvS9O
#AI #NLProc #LLM

-- Tech At Bloomberg (@TechAtBloomberg) Wed May 10 16:15:00 +0000 2023

tylercowen Retweeted

What’s wrong with international development agencies in Ukraine?

My list of top fundamental errors that are committed to

1. Obsession with control 1/

-- Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) Wed May 10 13:43:23 +0000 2023

tylercowen Retweeted

Recently on @TechCrunch, I touched on the need for more grants.

About two years ago, when I was looking for grants to support a year-long independent research project in the US, I only had one option — @tylercowen’s Emergent Ventures fund.

(1/9)

-- Subaita Rahman (@subaita_rahman) Wed May 10 23:58:45 +0000 2023

Subaita Rahman tweeted this while quoting the below tweet.

Undergrad researchers are full of potential, but are often unpaid or underpaid.

We're launching an institution-agnostic grants program to enable ANY undergrad to pursue life science research. If you're interested in sponsoring grants for future biotech innovators, shoot us a DM!

-- Nucleate Dojo (@NucleateDojo) Wed May 10 21:18:22 +0000 2023