Hard line I'd draw if I were Biden: any debt ceiling compromise needs to raise the debt limit to cover the rest of his 1st term. Raising it just through 3/31/24 (as per GOP House bill) and setting up for another fight in the middle of a presidential year would be extremely dumb.

-- Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) Sun May 21 14:47:08 +0000 2023

They didn't give Jokic the MVP for Narrative Reasons and he's averaging a ~30 point triple double in the playoffs good job everyone.

-- Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) Sun May 21 02:59:32 +0000 2023

Shit, looks like we're about to have major alignment issues with a more intelligent species. https://www.livescience.com/animals/orcas/orcas-have-sunk-3-boats-in-europe-and-appear-to-be-teaching-others-to-do-the-same-but-why

-- Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) Fri May 19 20:51:55 +0000 2023

Hey Oklahoma and neighboring tweeps: A dear friend's mother has gone missing. Please be on the lookout and if you can provide any assistance, it would be greatly appreciated.

-- Sean T at RCP is a free elf (@SeanTrende) Wed May 17 11:54:35 +0000 2023

And he was down 6 just 2 weeks ago! Can we please not do this. General election polls are not going to be useful until **about a year from now**. This is like saying "are we there yet?" when you haven't even finished pulling out of the driveway.

-- Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) Wed May 17 15:54:52 +0000 2023

No they don't tell you anything. 1) Normal people aren't paying attention to an election 18 months way. 2) It's a hypothetical election, the candidates aren't nominated yet and the campaign isn't underway. 3) Pollsters can't yet and aren't trying to model the "likely electorate"

-- Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) Wed May 17 20:21:32 +0000 2023

Nate Silver tweeted this while quoting the below tweet.

I don't understand this as 1) I think polls at this stage are useful and 2) I use 538 to find them https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1658863665951698945

-- Bill Scher (@billscher) Wed May 17 19:31:20 +0000 2023

Replying to @NateSilver538

At this point, a well-calibrated election forecast would be based almost entirely on fundamentals and forecasts of future macro conditions and not current polling. If you want to know current conditions re: Biden, look at his approval ratings. These gen elex polls are junk food.

-- Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) Wed May 17 20:23:35 +0000 2023

Replying to @NateSilver538

Go follow the NBA playoffs or the debt ceiling debate or the latest AI news, all about 10000% more interesting than these stupid polls.

-- Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) Wed May 17 20:24:24 +0000 2023

The GOP has leverage on the debt ceiling and the thing about one party to a negotiation having leverage is that they have leverage whether you want to admit it or not. At the same time, they don't have unmitigated leverage. Why not?

-- Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) Wed May 17 22:26:26 +0000 2023

Nate Silver tweeted this while quoting the below tweet.

If you're in the Democratic camp that's gravely intoning "Remember: Trump can win if the economy goes bad" all day on Twitter, the logic against picking *this* particular debt ceiling fight as the one to end all debt ceiling fights from forever on starts lookin' pretty clear

-- Benjy Sarlin (@BenjySarlin) Wed May 17 18:47:59 +0000 2023

Replying to @NateSilver538

1) WH would probably pursue a workaround rather than default, reducing economic consequences.
2) Some uncertainty as to how public would react, a *self-induced* economic crisis is sort of an out-of-sample event. Be wary of overly mechanistic claims re: political effects.
(cont)

-- Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) Wed May 17 22:26:26 +0000 2023

Replying to @NateSilver538

3) Not a strictly zero-sum game:
a) Plausibly could hurt incumbents in both parties
b) Lots of GOP members of Congress have large financial holdings
c) GOP members rely on business community for $ and social status

-- Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) Wed May 17 22:26:27 +0000 2023

Been speaking with people about AI risk and I'll sometimes ask a question where I mimic a dumb pundit voice and say "You were wrong about NFTs so how can we trust you about AI?!" and they'll roll their eyes like people can't actually be that dumb but I assure you they can be!

-- Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) Thu May 18 02:05:24 +0000 2023

Replying to @NateSilver538

Based on a specific example but not going to provide engagement, IYKYK

-- Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) Thu May 18 02:06:51 +0000 2023

My new favorite hobby is to talk web-enabled AI into making terrible NBA trades.

-- Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) Wed May 17 01:59:05 +0000 2023

Real principal-agency problem here, management gave up an absolutely insane amount for Durant and now are firing the former coach-of-the-year.

-- Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) Sun May 14 01:36:11 +0000 2023

Nate Silver tweeted this while quoting the below tweet.

Breaking: The Phoenix Suns are parting ways with head coach Monty Williams, sources tell @TheAthletic @Stadium.

-- Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) Sun May 14 01:30:03 +0000 2023

Replying to @NateSilver538

The Rudy Gobert trade gave a whole permission structure to incredibly terrible trades, it's probably the GOAT worst in North American professional sports history*.

* Babe Ruth was a purchase, not a trade.

-- Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) Sun May 14 02:00:23 +0000 2023

What NBA player has most changed consensus perceptions of his greatness/legacy by winning a title? Feels like Jokic would be up there. Maybe also Harden/Embiid.

-- Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) Fri May 12 13:42:32 +0000 2023

Weird Q for my book.

Have you ever been in a "zone" or flow state?

-- Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) Fri May 12 18:27:07 +0000 2023

My most "contrarian" take yet: Booking last-minute domestic travel is often fine (Caveats: on busy routes, excluding holidays.) I think something changed in airlines' pricing models during the pandemic and it's not too often you get screwed.

-- Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) Fri May 12 22:16:19 +0000 2023

Cable news networks are after ratings and buzz and if you don't like what they're doing a low-key good option is denying them those things by just ignoring them.

-- Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) Thu May 11 14:07:24 +0000 2023

A generally annoying problem with social media is the inability to de-amplify conversations you find counterproductive. Twitter had a downvote button for a while but that isn't the right connotation. I want a button for like I'm agnostic on the issue but please STFU about it.

-- Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) Fri May 12 02:43:31 +0000 2023

Since he tweeted this, Mets are 17-19, Yankees are in last place, Rangers eliminated in first round, Knicks on the verge of elimination.

-- Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) Wed May 10 13:31:45 +0000 2023

Nate Silver tweeted this while quoting the below tweet.

Happy #OpeningDay & let’s go @Mets!!

-- Rep. George Santos (@RepSantosNY03) Thu Mar 30 21:17:38 +0000 2023

Ask it for citations!

-- Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) Wed May 10 21:29:25 +0000 2023

Nate Silver tweeted this while quoting the below tweet.

I haven't yet experienced LLM search as better than Google. Is it because I'm unusually good at Google, or unusually bad at Bing Chat/ChatGPT? https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1652395663739482116

-- Jordan Ellenberg (@JSEllenberg) Wed May 10 21:18:28 +0000 2023

Replying to @NateSilver538

It's very good at pointing you in the right general direction. It lacks the precision of a search engine and it sometimes hallucinates. But for stuff like "summarize the debate on this topic and give me some sources I can explore further" I find it considerably more efficient.

-- Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) Wed May 10 21:34:20 +0000 2023

AI will get better at targeted political communication and the general adjustment is probably to be more skeptical of content that flatters you too much. But people like being flattered and were probably too unskeptical of such content to begin with.

-- Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) Tue May 09 05:07:31 +0000 2023

A debt ceiling workaround is pretty obviously a dominant strategy to default. There might be some tactical advantage in how and when Biden brings this up but the endgame has been apparent for a while. Not to say they won't reach a deal but if they don't, strategy is clear.

-- Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) Wed May 10 00:42:30 +0000 2023